Stocks delivered an interesting session yesterday, closing mixed after a zany ride led by Bitcoin… which was led by some as yet unknown source. Traders are getting dizzy with one eye on earnings and one tired, tired eye on inflation and its Fed keepers.
Hold your fire. Yes, yes, I know that inflation numbers – always important, will be released tomorrow. I know that Fed members are being ambiguous about what comes next. I can show you a chart of where Fed Funds futures expect the key lending rate to be at the end of each Fed meeting through next year. I will spare you, because you don’t need to know the details. At a high level, ALL THE NUMBERS ARE NEGATIVE. That means futures traders are betting that rates are not going higher in the next year. Exactly how much lower and when… is really only important for short term traders, banks… and oh, the futures traders themselves who hope to NOT lose money on the trades. Of course, I don’t mean to diminish the importance of those projections, but it is important to recognize that all of it is based on speculation. The good news is that Fed members mostly agree with my high-level assessment that rates are not going higher and if you had to put signs on the numbers, they would be all negative. Ok, got it? Great. Following on yesterday’s note where I urged you not to worry and be happy… about inflation and the Fed. Whether tomorrow’s Consumer price Index / CPI comes in at +3.2% or 3.whatever is not the biggest thing you need to worry about this week. What am I worried about?
I want to know how all my favorite companies are going to continue to grow their revenues now that they can no longer hide behind the “economic headwinds,” “exchange rate impairments,” and “supply chain disruptions.” Further I am interested in companies explaining exactly how they have managed to deliver sales growth in the last quarter. You see, many companies simply raised prices in 2022 and 2023 because, WHY NOT, EVERYONE ELSE IS DOING IT. Moreover, if consumers are willing to pay up, it is only rational to relieve them of their dollars. Initially the price hiking was explained as being necessary to cover the massive rise in costs of materials, transportation, and labor. If that is the case, how then were many of these companies able to expand their margins as well? I get it; trust me, I know, “it’s just business.”
With that disruption and business opportunity behind us, what will be the next revenue growth strategy for many companies? Will companies go back to growing revenues the old-fashioned way by conquering new markets, finding new customers, and innovating? Now that the Netflixes of the world have figured out how to charge me an extra $17 a month so my kids can watch movies on my account, what is next for them? They already raised prices prior to that landgrab. I suppose, and I hope that they won’t, try to raise prices again. No, I would like to hear how they are going to find new subscribers and provide other unique, profitable services to their existing subscribers.
Another ploy not recently used is growth through mergers and acquisitions, due to market conditions. Having much experience in M&A, I can tell you that there are many really good justifications for some of those transactions. I can also tell you that many, many of them are an unfortunate waste of shareholder money, with the promise of vast “synergies” rarely realized… even if they could be tracked (most can’t 😉). When I learned yesterday that Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) was acquiring Juniper Networks (JNPR), my antennas went up. I thought to myself, what would a services company want with a network hardware company? I get that HPE uses JNPR hardware and that, possibly, HPE can now get products more cheaply, but what is the real gain? Where is that 1 + 1 = 3? Hmm, in 2023 HPE grew their revenues by +2.2% to a respectable $29.1 billion. Juniper, on the other hand, grew their last twelve months revenues by +9.6% and is expected to book $5.6 billion in revenues for 2023. Wouldn’t it be great to add an additional nearly +20% of revenues by acquiring one of your suppliers? Sure, it will cost shareholders $14 billion, but there will be “cost synergies,” and Juniper does some AI-stuff, which has got to be good for something… especially in the highly competitive world of cloud computing. Wouldn’t you think that HPE could benefit from having network hardware companies compete for its business rather than take out one its suppliers? It would seem to me that Cisco (CSCO) would benefit most, in the long run, from this combination. AT&T proved long ago, that vertically integrated services companies are far more efficient when its suppliers have to compete for its business.
What am I going on about? I am not doubting HPE’s claims of greatness from this acquisition as I have not nearly done the necessary diligence needed to do so. However, based on the recent strength in the markets, and given that this quarter’s results will possibly be the last “low bar,” I think we can expect to see more “synergistic” mergers coming down the pike in the quarters ahead. Starting now, however, we need to pay close attention and hold the companies we invest in accountable and make sure that they are spending our capital on revenue growth… the old-fashioned way.
THIS MORNINGS PREMARKT BUZZ
Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG) shares are higher by +5.42% in the premarket after it released preliminary results that exceeded analysts’ expectations. In the past month, 10 analysts have raised their price targets while non have lowered them. That is the “old-fashioned” way I was referring to above 😉. Potential average analyst target upside: +1.1%.
Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) shares are higher by +1.81% in the premarket after it received a BUY upgrade by Truist, and a new coverage OUTPERFORM by Bernstein. Analysts expect the company to continue to benefit from industry growth and price expansion of its products due to increased demand. Dividend yield: 0.37%. Potential average analyst target upside: +12.0%.
YESTERDAY’S MARKETS
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