Stocks rallied yesterday after dip buyers swooped in to pick up some of their favorites on sale. Japan has unexpectedly slipped into a recession… and so has the UK leaving traders wondering who’s next.
Debauchery… utter decadence. Yesterday, being Valentine’s day, I decided to take up knife and skillet and cook a meal for my valentine. I have been a bit busy lately, and my valentine of 38 years 💘has taken over my culinary responsibility in recent months. We decided that I would cook something we rarely eat anymore these days, that meant after a 2 ½ hour train/subway commute I got to visit one of my favorite muses… Whole Foods. So, I come to you this morning with my report on the state of food prices.
Yesterday morning, I briefly went over the drivers of Monday’s slightly elevated Consumer Price Index / CPI along with the market’s negative overreaction. Truly, services remain the principal reason for the CPI’s remaining above the Fed’s target. Shelter is a big part of that, and it is a concern, because we all kind-of need shelter in one form or another. Something else we all need is Food.My regular readers know that groceries are a bit of an obsession for me, because of that very reason… and maybe I am a bit of an epicure (that is a fancy word for foodie). Last night’s adventure gave me a perfect opportunity to revisit food prices, which were a real problem at the start of the inflation pandemic.
So, without further delay, here is the state of groceries, according to Monday’s number. Food, in general, is +2.6% more expensive than a year ago. That is only slightly higher than the Fed’s +2.0% target. For some reference, I will remind you that it grew as much as +9.1% in mid-2022! Bread is higher by +3.2%, Meats/Poultry/Fish grew by +2.1, but Beef is a standout, gaining +10.7%. Remember how crazy Egg inflation was? According to Monday’s number, Eggs are cheaper by -28.6% this year 🐔… thankfully. Apples and Lettuce are cheaper by a lot, but Frozen Noncarbonated Juices will cost you +29% more than a year ago; they are loaded with sugar, so… well, you know. Baby Food is not cheap to begin with and it inflated by +8.7% since January of last year. You could just eat out, though you would not save much, as those prices have gained +5.1% in the past year. All in all, looking down the list of items, annual growth was moderate with some disinflation. Alcohol… the kind you consume, grew by +2.3%, which is reasonable. Really, from a high level, things at the grocery store have gotten closer to normal.
If you must know, last night’s menu at Chez Malek included some charcuterie (-2.1%), a champaigne toast (+0.9%), steak au poivre (+10.7%), shoestring fries with truffle aioli (-0.3%), frisée salad (-11.7%), and crusty bread (+2.8%). For dessert we had some really, really decadent cookies… which were a gift from my son and his fiancée… that cost them +0.6% more than last year… though I am sure that DoorDash delivery was not free (+3.6%). Tonight, it will be back to something healthier like fish (-2.6%) or chicken (+1.2%) with roasted veggies (-0.9%). What is not healthy is Motor Vehicle Insurance higher by +20.6%… but that is another topic for another day.
THE PREMARKET BUTCHER BILL
Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) shares are lower by -4.38% after announcing a beat for last quarter. Current quarter guidance was below estimates and full-year guidance was lowered below analyst targets as well. The company is planning to lay off 5% of its workforce and has raised its dividend. Dividend yield: 3.18%. Potential average analyst target upside: +5.2%.
Rollins Inc (ROL) shares are lower by -7.8% in the premarket after the company announced that it missed on EPS and Revenue estimates by -0.94% and -0.34%. The pest control company reported weaker demand from their residential division. 50% of analysts that cover Rollins rate the company as BUY while only 8.3% rate it a sell. Dividend yield: 1.35%. Potential average analyst target upside: +5.1%.
YESTERDAY’S MARKETS
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