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The Iran Succession Risk Nobody Is Pricing

Rising oil prices are only the first derivative of this geopolitical crisis. The real risk lies in how long it lasts.
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The Lady on my Ferry Is Broke–She Just Doesn't Know It Yet

The American consumer keeps spending—but rising credit card balances and delinquencies raise questions about how long it can last.
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Look Both Ways: Energy, Equities, and the Trump Put

Markets digest Middle East conflict as oil spikes, the dollar rallies, and volatility surges. Energy leads the story–but software surprises.
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Hormuz: The 21-Mile Inflation Machine

US strikes on Iran escalate tensions, oil surges, and the Strait of Hormuz becomes the market’s focal point. Here’s the math behind potential gas price spikes.
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The Hidden Exposure in Your “Safe” Stocks

9% yields are compensation, not generosity. Understand the tradeoff before chasing income.
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AI’s State of the Union: Strong Numbers, Cold Applause

AI growth remains powerful—but the easy money phase is over.
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AI Is Not a Job Killer. It’s a Job Creator.

From 1980 to 2000, GDP doubled during the PC revolution. Why assume AI ends differently?
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The Great AI Overreaction

AI isn’t killing software. It’s exposing weak business models. Here’s what investors are missing.
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Is the Labor Market Cracking—or Just Cooling?

The labor market may be softer than expected, but consumption—the heartbeat of the economy—is still healthy.
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Cockroaches 2.0

There is no free lunch on Wall Street. Private credit just reminded everyone why.
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