Aug 1, 2025 6:39:34 AM Inflation Wakes Up—Just in Time for Tariffs Mark Malek Inflation is creeping back and tariffs are officially arriving. Here’s what that means for stocks. KEY TAKEAWAYS S&P 500 is up 7.78% YTD but has rallied 27% from April lows Tariffs officially start in 7 days—average rate of 15.2% Durable goods inflation flipped from -1.2% in Dec to +0.93% in June Companies are likely to pass tariff costs on to consumers or be faced with margin compression Fed policy is paralyzed as inflation shows early signs of re-igniting MY HOT TAKES Tariffs are a tax—someone always pays Durable goods inflation is the canary in the coal mine The “pause” in inflation is likely over–trend matters more than level Market strength has masked incoming economic pressure The Fed’s hands are tied–trade policy is doing the tightening now You can quote me: “The party ends in 7 days. If you are staying for the afterparty, you better have a pair of comfortable shoes.”
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