Aug 4, 2025 10:16:12 AM Labor Pain: The Hidden Cost of Tariffs Mark Malek With tariffs rising and job growth collapsing, the Fed faces an impossible decision. KEY TAKEAWAYS The Fed has a dual mandate: control inflation and maintain employment—both are in conflict right now Friday's jobs report showed major weakness—only 73k jobs added, with over 250k downward revisions Inflation, especially in durable goods, is starting to pick up again due to new tariffs The labor market no longer looks strong enough to justify the Fed’s "higher for longer" policy Fed Funds futures now show up to three cuts by year-end, with the first expected in September MY HOT TAKES The Fed may have waited too long to act—and now it’s cornered Tariffs are stealth inflation machines, and they’re just getting started Labor market cracks are finally visible to everyone–not just economists Rate cuts are coming–but they’re arriving in an environment that still has inflation The Phillips Curve might be broken–but the Fed still acts like it isn’t You can quote me: “Powell probably spit his chamomile tea on the Washington Post when he saw that jobs number on CNBC.”
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