Inflation is creeping back and tariffs are officially arriving. Here’s what that means for stocks.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
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S&P 500 is up 7.78% YTD but has rallied 27% from April lows
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Tariffs officially start in 7 days—average rate of 15.2%
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Durable goods inflation flipped from -1.2% in Dec to +0.93% in June
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Companies are likely to pass tariff costs on to consumers or be faced with margin compression
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Fed policy is paralyzed as inflation shows early signs of re-igniting
MY HOT TAKES
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Tariffs are a tax—someone always pays
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Durable goods inflation is the canary in the coal mine
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The “pause” in inflation is likely over–trend matters more than level
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Market strength has masked incoming economic pressure
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The Fed’s hands are tied–trade policy is doing the tightening now
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You can quote me: “The party ends in 7 days. If you are staying for the afterparty, you better have a pair of comfortable shoes.”