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September 18, 2025

Miran’s Dot And The Dovish Mirage

The median dot looks dovish—until you see the dispersion. Here’s the truth.

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September 17, 2025

Buy The Rumor. Meet The Fed.

Markets want 25 bps. Tariffs and jobs complicate it. Here’s how today’s dots could drive the tape.

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September 16, 2025

Gold, Real Yields, and the Dollar–No Magic, Just Math

Econometrics meets gold: a simple model with powerful insight.

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September 15, 2025

The Politics of Sentiment: Red vs. Blue Confidence Gaps

Sentiment is sliding—can a Fed rate cut turn the mood?

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September 12, 2025

When the Yield Curve Plays Teeter-Totter

Yield curves don’t lie—until they do. What this week’s strange flattening is signaling.

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September 11, 2025

Stop Chasing Numbers–Start Understanding Them

A closer look at CPI, sticky services inflation, and why the Fed may be powerless against insurance-driven price hikes.

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September 10, 2025

Jobs, Inflation, and the Fed’s No-Win Game

AI efficiency, tariff uncertainty, and BLS revisions put jobs in the spotlight.

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September 9, 2025

Tastes Like Chicken: The Messy Truth About Monthly Jobs Data

The truth about employment data: estimates, adjustments, and a whole lot of math.

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September 8, 2025

Antibiotics For A Viral Economic Problem

2019 déjà vu: Fed cuts couldn’t fix a trade-war hiring slowdown then–and won’t now.

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September 5, 2025

Margin Pressure: The Unhealthy Diet of EPS Growth

Why margin compression is Wall Street’s biggest under-the-radar risk

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