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September 29, 2025

Sticky Inflation and Old News

Earnings, labor, shutdown risk—the week’s market drivers explained.

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September 26, 2025

Pump Up the Base: Fed Policy Explained

What the Fed’s obsession with “neutrality” means for markets, rates, and your portfolio.

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September 25, 2025

Why Lower Rates Won’t Fix Housing Affordability

The surge in new home sales looks strong–but supply, demand, and interest rate gravity tell a different story.

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September 24, 2025

Stocks, Rates, and the Fed’s Math Games

What Powell means when he says rates are “moderately restrictive.”

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September 23, 2025

Declining Payrolls: The Canary in the Coal Mine

Soft survey data and hard payroll numbers tell the same story–trouble for jobs.

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September 22, 2025

Déjà Vu: The 1990s Dotcom Run vs. Today’s AI Boom

History shows markets can stay “too expensive” for years before breaking. Are we there now?

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September 19, 2025

Forward PEs at 22x—Just Math or Justified?

Rate cuts gave stocks their sugar rush, but can EPS growth keep the rally alive?

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September 18, 2025

Miran’s Dot And The Dovish Mirage

The median dot looks dovish—until you see the dispersion. Here’s the truth.

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September 17, 2025

Buy The Rumor. Meet The Fed.

Markets want 25 bps. Tariffs and jobs complicate it. Here’s how today’s dots could drive the tape.

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September 16, 2025

Gold, Real Yields, and the Dollar–No Magic, Just Math

Econometrics meets gold: a simple model with powerful insight.

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