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The Fed has not raised rates, but markets already tightened financial conditions through stocks, yields, mortgages, and consumer debt costs.

Strong payrolls grabbed attention, but the real story is slowing hiring, falling confidence, and rising risk of a Fed policy mistake.

March employment data may be the most important number of the month, but Wall Street will not fully react until Monday. That gap could matter a lot for portfolios.

The Fed won’t call it stagflation, but investors should pay attention to the numbers, the policy trap, and the risks to 60/40 portfolios.

Recession is a label. What matters is whether high gas prices, market volatility, and economic anxiety finally hit consumer spending.

Last year’s tariff shock hit a sturdier economy. This year, growth is weaker, inflation is hotter, and the risks are piling up.